When consumer spending drops, it will tell you, logically that the personal disposable income has dropped. In simpler terms, this means that people don’t have more income to spend because of either losing jobs or prioritizing more important payments like electric bills, water bills, education spending or paying loans.
Credit expansion may also bring about recession. When more and more credit is incurred, less economic activity is created as reflected in the country’s GDP. The United States is a good example for this. The US economy growth was highly dependent on the housing bubble which is intensive debt and extreme credit. To be able to drive up the house prices, the firms had to borrow from other lending companies and further borrowed money to convert into cash their capital gains.
A trade deficit is another factor which may eventually lead the country’s GDP to drop for some consecutive quarters a year. If the manufacturing sector drops, then the productivity growth is hampered. Usually, manufacturing sector has the highest rate of capital formation. If this drops, then the GDP is greatly affected.
Because of credit expansion and drop in real disposable income of consumers, the individuals eventually find themselves in a debt trap. People usually incur debts which are too high and difficult to pay given their disposable income. Given that personal disposable income is lower, people tend to buy things using their credit cards. This further expands the credit rate of the country. On normal days, when people buy assets they would use money for their savings. But given the current scenario, this has not been the case.
Another factor which could lead to an economic recession is the crash in house prices. Just to be able to sell, companies lower down interest rates and even house prices. They even allow people who are not that capable to pay the house price to get one. This is because they are desperate enough to sell. Given that personal disposable income has dropped, then the capability of people to buy houses has drastically lowered.
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